Induced Seismicity by Groundwater Extraction at the Dead Sea Fault, Jordan

Abstract

The earthquake sequence, with a maximum earthquake magnitude of MW 3.8, that occurred during January–February 2022 at the northern Dead Sea fault, is shown to be induced by extensive groundwater abstraction in Wadi Al-Arab basin. Wadi Al-Arab basin, which is bordered in the west by the Dead Sea fault, has been overexploited by extensive groundwater abstraction causing significant drawdowns. Relative earthquake relocation indicates an elongated S-N sequence subparallel to the Dead Sea fault. We simulate the three-dimensional hydraulic head changes in the past 40 years at Wadi al Arab basin. Results show that the drawdowns at the Dead Sea fault wells reached a value greater than 180 m. We use these results to further model the poroelastic effects of the drawdown on the stability of the Dead Sea fault using a typical fault architecture including fault core surrounded by damage zone. Upward groundwater drainage through the permeable damage zone leads to compaction and strengthening. Failure on the Dead Sea fault is expected to occur on the impermeable fault core or at the protholith where weakening is expected. Groundwater abstraction in Wadi Al-Arab basin cause changes of a few MPa in the Coulmb Failure Stress (ΔCFS) and trigger seismicity in these sections. This is the second location along the Dead Sea fault where groundwater abstraction was shown to recently induce earthquakes. With growing demand for water and long lasting droughts in the Middle East, seismicity induced by groundwater abstraction might reoccur in the near future.