Priced out of your future? How housing hardship increases adolescents’ exposure to police-initiated contacts. Evidence from the United Kingdom

Abstract

This study examines how childhood housing tenure instability affects police contacts among adolescents, an underexplored yet consequential dimension of youth interactions with law enforcement. Analyzing data from 10,608 participants in the United Kingdom Millennium Cohort Study (2001–2015), we construct a novel measure of cumulative housing hardship, capturing the compounded effects of frequent residential moves and tenure instability (e.g., growing up in cost-burdened households, experiencing downward mobility, or being priced out of homeownership). Logistic regression results indicate that adolescents living in unstable non-ownership homes or who were exposed to downward tenure mobility trajectories during childhood are significantly more likely to experience police-initiated contact (stop and search, caution, or arrest) than their peers who either remained residentially stable or moved within homeownership. However, youth conduct alone does not fully explain these disparities. Using Karlson-Holm-Breen mediation analysis, we find that, beyond externalizing disorders, traditionally linked to an increased risk of engaging in violent and antisocial behaviors, social disconnection serves as a significant mediating pathway. These findings challenge conventional criminological perspectives that attribute police contact primarily to individual criminal propensity, instead highlighting housing hardship as a structural driver of early legal system exposure.