A retrospective and prospective view of current and future population ageing in the European Union 28 countries

Abstract

Population ageing in the EU28 is an important twenty-first century phenomenon, affecting virtually every aspect of life in these countries. The results of the latest EUROPOP2018 population forecast indicate that the rate of ageing is accelerating. The aim of this paper is to analyse the current level of population ageing in the EU28, identify spatial differences, and point to likely trends by the middle of this century. For these purposes, we have used a combination of conventional chronological indicators of population ageing and a set of new indicators based on prospective age that allows for a more comprehensive and realistic view of population ageing. We use multivariate statistical methods (factor and cluster analysis) to identify groups of countries with similar population ageing characteristics, using both a retrospective and prospective approach. We decompose changes in selected ageing indicators into the separate effects of changes in the population composition (children under 15, working-age population, elderly). We then identify the effect of major demographic factors (migration, mortality, cohort turnover) for the set of EU28 countries.