Estimating changes of forest carbon storage in China for 70 years (1949–2018)

Abstract

In the realm of forest resource inventory and monitoring, stand-level biomass carbon models are especially crucial. In China, their importance is underscored as they form the bedrock for estimating national and international forest carbon storage. This study, based on the data from 52,700 permanent plots in the 9th National Forest Inventory (NFI) of China, was directed towards developing these models. After computing biomass and carbon storage per hectare using specific tree models for 34 species groups, we devised robust volume-derived biomass and carbon storage models for 20 forest types. The application of these models and historical data reveals notably a decline in China's forest carbon storage to 4.90Pg by the late 1970s due to aggressive forest exploitation. However, subsequent conservation and afforestation campaigns have affected a recovery, culminating in a storage of 8.69Pg by the 9th NFI. Over the past 40 years, China's forest carbon storage has surged by 3.79Pg, split between natural forests (2.25Pg) and planted forests (1.54Pg). In benchmarking against three pre-existing models, we discerned discernible biases, underscoring the need for larger modeling sample sizes. Overall, our models stand as a monumental stride in accurately gauging forest carbon storage fluctuations in China, both regionally and nationally.