When context matters: Analysis of the ministerial turnover in argentina and Brazil after redemocratization

Abstract

This article tests two hypotheses concerning ministerial survival in two types of presidential regimes, namely coalition presidentialism (Brazil) and single party presidentialism (Argentina). First, it is assumed that ministers in Brazil would present a shorter life span in their positions than in Argentina, due to the need to accommodate party coalition demands. Subsequently, it is suggested that the reasons for ministers leaving their positions would be different precisely because the appointment logics of both presidential regimes are distinct. The first hypothesis is assessed by applying Kaplan-Meier survival tests. The second hypothesis is analyzed by identifying the reasons ministers left their positions, using primary sources. The literature emphasizes that institutional arrangements affect minister permanence lengths in their positions and the reasons by which they are dismissed, although we conclude that only the inclusion of the political and economic contexts of each presidential period aid towards a full understanding of ministerial survival dynamics in each country.