Solar cycle signatures in lightning activity

Abstract

The cross-correlation between annual lightning frequency and solar activity and the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) is examined on a global scale using corrected data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) for the period 2009 to 2022. Relatively large regions with significant cross-correlation coefficients (p<0.05) between the yearly lightning rates and sunspot number (SSN) are found in eastern Africa, part of South America overlapping with the South Atlantic Anomaly, and the Indian Ocean and west coast of Australia. The main region that shows a significant correlation between lightning activity and the By component of the HMF and the magnetopause reconnection Kan-Lee electric field matches the South Atlantic Anomaly quite well. Also shown are areas that show a significant cross-correlation of lightning activity with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index. Similar areas of significant cross-correlation are obtained if simulated thunder days are used instead of lightning counts. Possible mechanisms leading to the observed correlations and limitations of the current study are discussed. The findings of the present study do not support previous works indicating that cosmic ray intensity is in phase with the global occurrence of lightning, but they do not rule out the role of cosmic rays in lightning ignition in developed thunderclouds and the role of energetic particles precipitating from the magnetosphere in the significant correlation between lightning and the By component of the HMF (SSN) in the South Atlantic Anomaly.