Assessment of the patterns of rainfall in northern Nigeria

Abstract

This study assessed rainfall variations in Northern part of Nigeria. To achieve this aim, the study sets out the following objectives; determine variations in rainfall characteristics in terms of extreme rainfall amounts, variability and ranges, use the time series to determine any trend in the change (upward or downward), predict values for the period; 2007 – 2030, which will also be subjected to the time series analysis and account for the causes of rainfall variability in the study area. The data for the study was collected from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency for eleven (11) stations for a period of thirty-six (36) years. Simple statistical measures of mean, median, maximum and minimum, standard deviation, variance, skewness, kurtosis and coefficient of variability were used for discerning the patterns and distribution of rainfall. The results achieved indicate that the region could be divided into two periods on the basis of lower rainfall (1970’s and 1980’s) and the periods of higher rainfall (1990’s and 2000’s). During the predicted period; 2007 – 2030, rainfall declines until 2019 and from 2020, rainfall begins to increase until 2030. The southern part of the region has higher rainfall compared to the northern parts. There is a general increase in rainfall in the forecast period. The work recommended that more of this type of study be carried out in other regions of Nigeria. The results show that no signal has really been detected. We should devote more attention to regional studies of current climatic behaviours in various regions of Nigeria.