Hybrid algorithm of ensemble transform and importance sampling for assimilation of non-Gaussian observations

Abstract

A hybrid algorithm that combines the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) and the importance sampling approach is proposed. Since the ETKF assumes a linear Gaussian observation model, the estimate obtained by the ETKF can be biased in cases with nonlinear or non-Gaussian observations. The particle filter (PF) is based on the importance sampling technique, and is applicable to problems with nonlinear or non-Gaussian observations. However, the PF usually requires an unrealistically large sample size in order to achieve a good estimation, and thus it is computationally prohibitive. In the proposed hybrid algorithm, we obtain a proposal distribution similar to the posterior distribution by using the ETKF. A large number of samples are then drawn from the proposal distribution, and these samples are weighted to approximate the posterior distribution according to the importance sampling principle. Since the importance sampling provides an estimate of the probability density function (PDF) without assuming linearity or Gaussianity, we can resolve the bias due to the nonlinear or non-Gaussian observations. Finally, in the next forecast step, we reduce the sample size to achieve computational efficiency based on the Gaussian assumption, while we use a relatively large number of samples in the importance sampling in order to consider the non-Gaussian features of the posterior PDF. The use of the ETKF is also beneficial in terms of the computational simplicity of generating a number of random samples from the proposal distribution and in weighting each of the samples. The proposed algorithm is not necessarily effective in case that the ensemble is located distant from the true state. However, monitoring the effective sample size and tuning the factor for covariance inflation could resolve this problem. In this paper, the proposed hybrid algorithm is introduced and its performance is evaluated through experiments with non-Gaussian observations.