Effects of climate variation on winter cereal production in Spain

Abstract

Climate variables responsible for inter-annual variations in the winter cereal yield in Spain were identified and climate information was translated into crop production. Empirical orthogonal functions and correlation analyses were applied to regional and large-scale climate variables to ascertain the links between climate and winter cereal yield. Interactions between climate and winter cereal productivity in Spain can be summarized as follows: the start of the growing season depends on minimum temperature, and crop maturity is affected by drought, maximum temperature, sea-level air pressure, moisture fluxes, and the jet stream, as well as by indices of the Scandinavian Pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Southern Oscillation. A statistical approach has been derived to describe variability in cereal productivity in Spain taking into account the previous potential predictors. In general, the best atmospheric conditions for increasing winter cereal productivity in Spain are warmer winters, cooler and wet springs, with prevalent meridional circulation at upper levels. The observed trend of increasing sea level pressure toward the western Mediterranean could cause a loss in the winter cereal yield. © Inter-Research 2007.