Predicting Monthly Wind Speeds Using XGBoost: A Case Study for Renewable Energy Optimization

Abstract

This study presents a wind speed prediction model using monthly average wind speed data, employing the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to enhance forecasting accuracy for wind farm operations. Accurate wind speed forecasting is crucial for optimizing energy production, ensuring grid stability, and improving operational planning. Existing studies on enhancing wind speed prediction using ML algorithms have some drawbacks based on accuracy, efficient prediction, and stuck-in-local-optima parameters. The dataset comprises monthly average wind speed measurements, and extensive preprocessing is conducted to prepare the data for machine learning. Various hyperparameter tuning techniques, including Randomized Search, Grid Search, and Bayesian Optimization, are applied to improve prediction accuracy. The performance of the model is evaluated utilizing key metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Maximum Error. The results indicate that hyperparameter tuning significantly improves model accuracy. Specifically, Grid Search demonstrates superior performance for short-term (one-month) forecasting, while Randomized Search is more effective for long-term (six-month) forecasting. The findings emphasize the critical importance of hyperparameter tuning strategies in the development of reliable wind speed forecasting models, which have significant implications for the efficient management of wind energy resources.