Homicide rates are spatially associated with built environment and socio-economic factors: a study in the neighbourhoods of Toronto, Canada

Abstract

Objectives: Homicide rate is associated with a large variety of factors and therefore unevenly distributed over time and space. This study aims to explore homicide patterns and their spatial associations with different socioeconomic and built-environment conditions in 140 neighbourhoods of the city of Toronto, Canada. Methods: A homicide dataset covering the years 2012 to 2021 and neighbourhood-based indicators were analysed using spatial techniques such as Kernel Density Estimation, Global/Local Moran’s I and Kulldorff’s SatScan spatio-temporal methodology. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multi-scale GWR (MGWR) were used to analyse the spatially varying correlations between the homicide rate and independent variables. The latter was particularly suitable for manifested spatial variations between explanatory variables and the homicide rate and it also identified spatial non-stationarities in this connection. Results: The adjusted R2 of the MGWR was 0.53, representing a 4.35 and 3.74% increase from that in the linear regression and GWR models, respectively. Spatial and spatio-temporal high-risk areas were found to be significantly clustered in downtown and the north-western parts of the city. Some variables (e.g., the population density, material deprivation, the density of commercial establishments and the density of large buildings) were significantly associated with the homicide rate in different spatial ways. Conclusion: The findings of this study showed that homicide rates were clustered over time and space in certain areas of the city. Socioeconomic and the built environment characteristics of some neighbourhoods were found to be associated with high homicide rates but these factors were different for each neighbourhood.