No country for the right wing? Actors, trajectory, supply and demand for the right in Ecuador

Abstract

Objective/context: This article describes and analyzes the performance, supply, organization and electoral reception of the right wing in Ecuador between 1998 and 2018, a period in which this ideological tendency faced particularly adverse structural conditions. Methodology: Research was conducted through a mixed approach. The first part of the article, focused on the supply, strategies and performance of the different actors of the Ecuadorian right, involved a process tracing analysis. The second part of the article surveys demand-side support for the right, including the influence of variables such as geographical region, wealth, level of education and religiosity among those who voted for the right. This analysis was based on the application of logistic regression models to survey data from the AmericasBarometer of the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP). Conclusions: This work manages to identify multiple variables that contributed to the peaks and troughs of the Ecuadorian right's performance in the polls during the period studied, highlighting the role of the pendulum effect associated with commodity cycles. Additionally, it concludes that, despite voters' diffuse identification with ideological definitions in broad terms, the right wing in Ecuador has not only survived, but has periodically emerged strengthened. Originality: Studies about the different ideological tendencies in Ecuador - especially with regard to the right - are incipient and largely out of date. This article provides an overview of recent scholarship on the Ecuadorian right, by combining a descriptive analysis of the main milestones that marked the positions of political elites, with an analysis of empirical evidence on the ideological self-identification of citizens since the beginning of the 21st century.