Predictive value of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk equations from the China-PAR for new-onset lower extremity peripheral artery disease

Abstract

Lower extremity peripheral artery disease (LEPAD) is a common and serious health-threatening disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk equations from the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) project for incident LEPAD after 6.75 ± 0.13 years of follow-up. A total of 3,595 Chinese participants without baseline ASCVD or LEPAD from a community-based cohort were enrolled in our study. The mean (interquartile range) baseline 10-year China-PAR ASCVD risk was 4.35% (2.24–8.44%), and the incidence of new-onset LEPAD during 6.75 ± 0.13 years was 4.23%. In univariable logistic regression analysis, 10-year China-PAR ASCVD risk was significantly associated with LEPAD incidence (odds ratio [OR] for each 1% increase in the risk score = 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03–1.08, P < 0.001). After adjusting confounders, the relationship remained significant (OR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05–1.1. P < 0.001). Participants with the highest risk (≥10%) had significantly increased risk compared to those with the lowest risk (<5%) (OR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.15–6.07, P = 0.022). Further interaction analyses showed no evidence of heterogeneity according to sex, age, body mass index (BMI), smoking, drinking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, renal function, waist circumference, and family history. In conclusion, 10-year China-PAR ASCVD risk independently predicted the risk of new-onset LEPAD in a Chinese community-based population, indicating the importance of polyvascular diseases (PVDs) and the intrinsic interactions of its components.