The insurgency’s strategic line: a national security model of analysis

Abstract

This study seeks to determine the insurgency’s strategic line using a more comprehensive methodology than the standard one used, which only measures tactical indicators quantitatively, raising doubts when appreciating other insurgency fulfilled or non-fulfilled objectives. Using the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s strategy between 2000 and 2014 as a case study, four strategic indicators were identified and standardized, and the strategic line was determined. A weakening of 61% towards the end of the period was quantified, resulting from both their errors and the National Security Strategy. These results may favor the National Security Strategy’s analysis and definition facing an insurgent conflict both for the Colombian case and other similar cases worldwide.