Layering and Displacement in Development Finance: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

This article explains why the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) are likely to have differential effects on the rules governing development finance. I draw on principal-agent models in arguing that in these two institutions, the delegation problem facing the Chinese government is different and therefore associated with different types of institutional change. The fragmented-authoritarian nature of the Chinese state profoundly affects delegation in the BRI. In the AIIB, in contrast, the delegation is to an international organization and hence not materially affected by the fragmented authoritarian nature of the Chinese state. Drawing on historical-institutionalist approaches to gradual institutional change, the article argues that the AIIB is likely to lead to institutional layering, the BRI to institutional displacement in development financing.