Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using a Hybrid TVF-EMD-ELM Strategy

Abstract

This paper discusses the efficient implementation of a new hybrid approach to forecasting short-term PV power production for four different PV plants in Algeria. The developed model incorporates a time-varying filter-empirical mode decomposition (TVF-EMD) and an extreme learning machine (ELM) as an essence regression. The TVF-EMD technique is used to deal with the fluctuation of PV power data by splitting it into a series of more stable and constant subseries. The specified set of features (intrinsic mode functions (IMFs)) is utilized for training and improving our forecasting extreme learning machine model. The adjusted ELM model is used to evaluate prediction efficiency. The suggested TVF-EMD-ELM model is assessed and verified in various Algerian locations with varying climate conditions. In all examined regions, the TVF-EMD-ELM model generates less than 4% error in terms of normalized root mean square error (nRMSE).