Assessment of China's mitigation targets in an effort-sharing framework

Abstract

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are a core component for post-2020 global climate agreements to achieve the 2 °C goal in addressing climate change. In the NDC, China has declared to lower carbon intensity by 60-65% from the 2005 level by 2030 and achieve the peak of CO2 emissions around 2030. In the context of the 2 °C goal, this study assesses China's CO2 mitigation targets in the NDC using fair ranges of emissions allowances as calculated from an effort-sharing framework based on six equity principles (and cost-effectiveness). Results show that understanding the fairness of China's NDC would rely heavily on selected equity principles. If the 65% target is implemented, China's NDC would position within full ranges of emissions allowances and align with responsibility-capacity-need based on comparisons in 2030, and with responsibility-capacity-need and equal cumulative per capita emissions based on comparisons during 2011-2030. Implications of the NDC on China's long-term CO2 mitigation targets beyond 2030 are also explored, which indicate that China's energy system would need to realize carbon neutrality by 2070s at the latest in the scenarios in this study.