Ultra-Short-Term Power Prediction for Distributed Photovoltaics Based on Time-Series LLMs

Abstract

Distributed photovoltaic power generation is volatile and intermittent, and its power generation is usually difficult to accurately predict. Previous studies have focused on physical or mathematical modeling methods, and it is difficult to grasp the complexity and variability of historical data, and the prediction accuracy is limited. To address these challenges, this paper proposes Solar-LLM, a novel prediction framework that adapts a pre-trained Large Language Model (LLM) for time-series forecasting. By freezing the core LLM and reprogramming only its input and output layers, Solar-LLM efficiently translates numerical time-series data into a format the model can understand. This approach leverages the LLM’s inherent ability to capture long-term dependencies and complex patterns, enabling effective learning even from limited data. Experiments conducted on a dataset from five photovoltaic power stations show that Solar-LLM significantly outperforms baseline models, proving it to be a highly effective and feasible solution for distributed PV power prediction.