Creating prognostic systems for cancer patients: A demonstration using breast cancer

Abstract

Integrating additional prognostic factors into the tumor, lymph node, metastasis staging system improves the relative stratification of cancer patients and enhances the accuracy in planning their treatment options and predicting clinical outcomes. We describe a novel approach to build prognostic systems for cancer patients that can admit any number of prognostic factors. In the approach, an unsupervised learning algorithm was used to create dendrograms and the C-index was used to cut dendrograms to generate prognostic groups. Breast cancer data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute were used for demonstration. Two relative prognostic systems were created for breast cancer. One system (7 prognostic groups with C-index = 0.7295) was based on tumor size, regional lymph nodes, and no distant metastasis. The other system (7 prognostic groups with C-index = 0.7458) was based on tumor size, regional lymph nodes, no distant metastasis, grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and age. The dendrograms showed a relationship between survival and prognostic factors. The proposed approach is able to create prognostic systems that have a good accuracy in survival prediction and provide a manageable number of prognostic groups. The prognostic systems have the potential to permit a thorough database analysis of all information relevant to decision-making in patient management and prognosis.