Publication trends in species distribution modeling and the pioneer contribution of dr. Rui cerqueira to ecological biogeography and distribution modeling in Brazil

Abstract

The quantification of species-environment relationship represents the core of predictive geographical modeling in ecology and the root of contemporary species distribution modeling. The correlative approaches that link known occurrences of species with environmental variation across landscapes to estimate ecological niches and geographic distributions are generally termed ecological niche modeling (ENM) or species distribution modeling (SDM). The theoretical basis of these models is that each organism is adapted to specific tolerance zones or “niches” which, in a Grinellian sense, can be considered as the set of abiotic requirements in which a species can maintain itself. Here we provided an overview of the publication trends on ENM/SDM, both globally and in Brazil, through a scientometric approach. We also review the most important contributions of Dr. Rui Cerqueira’s pioneer scientific research program on biogeography and distribution modeling in Brazil. The global production in the ENM/SDM field showed a growing trend in publication from 1990s on, with peaks on global production output occurring five times from 2005 to 2012. After 2009, more than a hundred articles were published yearly. In Brazil, although the production has also increased in the last decade, especially from 2006 on, the increase did not follow the magnitude of the global trend. Only after 2009 the number of articles published yearly surpassed ten. Cerqueira figures among the top ten authors in Brazil, being the only author to publish on the topic before 2002. Cerqueira has also made few, but quite important contributions to the understanding of biogeographical patterns in the Neotropics. These results highlight the pioneer contribution of Dr. Rui Cerqueira to the fields of ecological niche modeling/species distribution modeling and biogeography in Brazil, which we present and discuss here.