Trust Me, Stay: Institutional Trust, Drought Perceptions and Migration

Abstract

Do negative perceptions of droughts increase individual's preparedness to migrate across national borders and if so, does institutional trust mediate such relationship? Only a small number of studies suggest that drought perceptions increase international migration. Yet, these insights remain to be empirically tested in Africa using a large-N study. We examine this claim and explore if trust in institutions can mediate this relationship. To explore this, we distinguish between trust in partial institutions that enact laws and policies, trust in impartial institutions that enforce policies and generalised in all institutions designed to create and enforce laws on the intent to emigrate. We aim to fill both gaps within the literature by using survey data across Africa between 2016 and 2018. Our results suggest that perceived intensification of drought severity over time is a motivating factor for emigration; albeit we also find robust evidence that trust in partial institutions can mediate this relationship.