Reviewing uncertainty in bioenergetics and food web models to project invasion impacts: Four major Chinese carps in the Great Lakes

Abstract

Bioenergetics and food web models are tools available for understanding and projecting the impacts of aquatic species invasions on food web structure and energy allocation of an ecosystem. However, uncertainty is inherent in modeling the impact of invasive species in novel ecosystems as assumptions must be made about physiological responses to novel environments and interactions with existing (native and non-native) species. Here we use the four major Chinese carps (FMCC) in the Laurentian Great Lakes as a case study to categorize and describe the suite of uncertainties inherent in projecting the impact of invasive species with bioenergetics and food web models. We approach this case study in a decision analytic framework, describing structural uncertainties, environmental variation, partial observability, partial controllability, and linguistic uncertainty. Finally, we review and give suggestions for how the use of methods including adaptive management, scenario planning, sensitivity analyses, and value of information as well as efforts to ensure clarity in language and model structure can enable modelers and managers to reduce and account for key uncertainties and make better decisions for the control of invasive species.