Analysis of ship arrival functions in discrete event simulation models of an iron ore export terminal

Abstract

This work evaluates the results of different distribution functions of ships arrivals in the simulation of an iron ore export terminal under implementation. The system adopted for the analysis applied a real case designed for installation of a Brazilian company terminal. The analysis was carried out by a discrete event simulation model. Variations of up to 566% in predicting demurrage paid to ships are detected. A database with 2,518 arrivals of ships demonstrates that, unlike recommendations of the traditional literature, the Pearson 6 function is the one that better represents the distribution to a shipping terminal of iron ore than the Exponential, Erlang and Weibull functions.