Charging Load Forecasting of Electric Vehicle Based on Charging Frequency

Abstract

The rapid development of electric vehicles (EVs) will gradually increase the operating pressure of the power grid. The charging load of EVs need to be predicred to release this pressure. In this paper, the influence factors of EV charging load are analyzed and the load curve of different charging modes is obtained. According to the 2009 American families travel survey, EVs are divided into three types: private cars, buses and taxis. Then, different EVs' charging frequency, together with the starting point for state of charge (SOC) and daily mileage can be calculated. Correspondingly, the probability density function model can be established. Finally, the daily charging load is calculated by Monte Carlo algorithm, which provides the basis for the research of orderly EV charging.