Time-Dependent Framework for Analyzing Emergency Intervention Travel Times and Risk Implications due to Earthquakes. Bucharest Case Study

Abstract

Earthquakes can generate a significant number of casualties within seconds, as well as high economic losses. The lack of rapid and coordinated emergency intervention can contribute to much greater losses. In this paper we develop a framework taking advantage of the ArcGis Network Analyst extension, able to account for post-earthquake conditions and reflect travel times. By combining 1) network characteristics with 2) direct seismic damage information, 3) models to determine road obstruction potential, 4) traffic information and time-dependent post-earthquake modeling but also 5) emergency intervention facilities (hospitals or fire stations) and considerations regarding their functional limitations, this framework can provide important support for the management of emergency intervention but also for risk reduction planning. Main results consist of maps showing travel times for various scenarios and moments after an earthquake, inaccessible areas, vital roads for access or an identification of important facilities. As case study we chose Bucharest, one of Europe’s most endangered capitals considering the seismic risk level. The city was and could be considerably affected by earthquakes in the Vrancea Seismic Zone, being characterized by a high number of vulnerable buildings and by one of the greatest typical traffic congestion levels in the world. Compared to previous network studies for Bucharest, the new approach is more complex and customable, providing means for real-time integration and time-dependent analysis. Results, for a worst-case scenario, prove that the risks could be even greater than expected, but also what should be done to mitigate them, such as the construction of a new hospital in the western part of the city, ensuring safe delimited routes for emergency vehicles or expanding the treatment capacity of actual hospitals—some of which also need seismic retrofitting. Results of this study will be integrated in the revised version of the National Conception for Post-Earthquake Response—an operational framework which will lead to risk mitigation through the improvement of post-disaster reaction.