Forecasting the main indicators of food security of Russia

Abstract

In the context of current geopolitical events, accurate and correct forecasting of food security and provision becomes highly relevant for solving managerial tasks and making management decisions under modern conditions. This article reviews the main trends in the field of food security, forecasts its key indicators, and identifies the main problems and directions for the development of food security in the Russian Federation. Indicators in the field of food independence, production, and consumption are analyzed. Forecasts of gross collection of vegetables and melons, cultivated areas, imports of food and agricultural raw materials, and consumer price index for food products are presented. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research includes both general and specific scientific methods for assessing the level of food security, as well as methods of economic and statistical analysis, extrapolation methods, modeling and forecasting of time series, adaptive forecasting methods, and factorial analysis. The main problems and threats to food security are identified, including the low level of real income of the population, low share of highly processed products in exports, continuing effect of Western sanctions, low level of innovation and technological development of the agro-industrial sector, etc.. The following measures to improve state regulation of food security have been determined: to increase the economic and physical access to food, to develop the capacity of the agro-industrial complex in the production and scientific and technical fields, to introduce modifications to the Food Security Doctrine, to implement innovative technologies in crop production and to increase its efficiency, to increase the share of companies engaged in organic farming, etc.