MODELING LONG-TERM HUMAN POPULATION DYNAMICS USING KERNEL DENSITY ANALYSIS of 14C DATA in the ATACAMA DESERT (18°-21°S)

Abstract

Food production is one of the most significant achievements in Andean history. The domestication of plants and animals presented an enormous challenge, relating to changing technologies, settlement patterns, and social organization. This paper aims to assess Atacama Desert population dynamics and their relationship to the domestication of plants and animals through chronological modeling using kernel density estimation on radiocarbon (14C) dates, assuming that a higher 14C probability density is related to more intense human occupation. The analysis is based on a 14C dataset comprising 1003 14C dates (between 11,000 and 150 BP) from 243 archaeological sites in the Arica and Tarapacá regions of northern Chile, collected from published data. We observed two population-dynamics inflection points for these regions. First, starting at ca. 3000 BP, constant population growth occurred, which was related to horticulture in the Arica region and to agriculture in the Tarapacá region. Second, between ca. 1000 and 400 BP, a general population rise occurred due to the consolidation of intensive agriculture in the lowlands and precordillera altitudinal belts in both regions and the integration of the coast and the altiplano into macro-regional population dynamics.