Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Adabelief Optimized Temporal Convolutional Network and Gated Recurrent Unit Hybrid Neural Network

Abstract

To fully mine the relationship between temporal features in load data, improve the accuracy and efficiency of short-term load forecasting and overcome the difficulties caused by load nonlinearity and volatility in accurate load forecasting. In this paper, a hybrid neural network short-term load forecasting model based on temporal convolutional network (TCN) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) is proposed. Firstly, the correlation between meteorological features and load is measured with the distance correlation coefficient, and the fixed-length sliding time window method is used to reconstruct the features. Next, temporal convolutional network is adopted to extract the hidden historical information and time relationship including meteorological features, electricity price, etc., and a better-performing gated recurrent unit is utilized for perdition. Furthermore, the state-of-the-art AdaBelief optimizer and Attention mechanism are utilized to enhance the prediction accuracy and efficiency. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed model are verified by load and weather data from Spain and PJM power system data. Short-term load forecasting results in different periods and comprehensive comparisons with the performance of different models show that the proposed model can provide accurate load forecasting results rather quickly. The highlights of this paper are that temporal convolutional network and gated recurrent unit are combined for load forecasting for the first time, and the forecasting performance is improved by the novel optimizer AdaBelief and feature selection based on distance correlation coefficient.