Update of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves under climate change: a review

Abstract

Land use and land cover changes, population growth, urban sprawl and climate change are expected to augment the pressure on natural environment and on existing infrastructure. As a result, update of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves considering climate change is essential for adaptation of water-related structures to climate change. The present work reviews the main challenges regarding the update of IDF curves considering climate change. A wide literature search was conducted in scientific databases. More than 100 articles published between 2001 and 2021 have been reviewed and are summarized and discussed. The main aims of the present work were to: (i) identify the state-of-the-art scientific approaches regarding IDF curve update under climate change projections; (ii) assess whether or not these approaches incorporate uncertainty (i.e., uncertainty related to climate models, statistical downscaling techniques, temporal resolution of data, theoretical distribution selection etc.); and (iii) propose general guidelines for updating IDF curves based on climate projections. First, the motivation is presented that makes IDF curve renewal a global issue. Second, current practices are described and reviewed and the main impacts of climate change on short precipitation extremes around the world are briefly discussed. Finally, limitations and future research needs are discussed.