Establishment and validation of the scoring system for preoperative prediction of central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma

Abstract

Early preoperative diagnosis of central lymph node metastasis (CNM) is crucial to improve survival rates among patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Here, we analyzed clinical data from 2862 PTC patients and developed a scoring system using multivariable logistic regression and testified by the validation group. The predictive diagnostic effectiveness of the scoring system was evaluated based on consistency, discrimination ability, and accuracy. The scoring system considered seven variables: gender, age, tumor size, microcalcification, resistance index >0.7, multiple nodular lesions, and extrathyroid extension. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.742, indicating a good discrimination. Using 5 points as a diagnostic threshold, the validation results for validation group had an AUC of 0.758, indicating good discrimination and consistency in the scoring system. The sensitivity of this predictive model for preoperative diagnosis of CNM was 4 times higher than a direct ultrasound diagnosis. These data indicate that the CNM prediction model would improve preoperative diagnostic sensitivity for CNM in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.