Major crises of the XXIst century and impact on economic growth

Abstract

Global economic growth is noted to have been severely affected by the Great Recession in 2009, reaching its lowest level since the series began in 2019. This low was exceeded in 2020, in the sense that the level of economic growth in Q1 and Q2 2020 is well below 2009 due to countries’ efforts to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Cases of coronavirus that have occurred since February– March 2020 have started to produce significant effects on economic growth, and the evolution of the economic growth indicator is in decline for the countries analysed. The article is aiming to develop two models (using Empirical Regression Model) that analyse the influence of macroeconomic indicators on economic growth. Our study covers EU member countries in Central and Eastern Europe from 2001–2020 Q2. Using the same variables and coefficients for both models, six for the first model and seven for the second model with the addition of coronavirus cases, we see a change in the behaviour of independent variables. The authors consider that this variable influences the economic situation in a country because it has caused the change in the unfavourable direction of certain macroeconomic indicators with a direct influence on economic growth. By adding cases of coronavirus (Cc) the equation becomes broader and contains several variables that explain the evolution of economic growth. Each of the indicators changes its value, but it is noted that variables with negative coefficients decrease further (e.g., Cs, GvS). Our findings in this article confirm that of all the determinants analysed, CsGw, Ret, GvS, and Cc overwhelmingly influence economic growth.