Influence of Climate Variability on the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission among Children in Bangui, Health Challenges in Central African Republic

Abstract

Background: Malaria was the deadliest worldwide vector-borne disease in 2017. The objective of this study was to determine the eco-epidemiology of malaria at the reduced scale of a Health Region in children less than 5 years old. Objectives: To assess the relationship between climate and malaria epidemiology in children less than 5 years old in Bangui. Methodology: Health data were collected from the Health Region Nº7 database. Climatic data were collected from the database of the Bangui M’poko station and the Bangui national meteorological delegation. Demographic data were collected from the United Nations Population Fund and the Central African Institute of Statistics, Economic and Social Studies. Ethical clearance was obtained from the local ethics committee, which allowed us to access the data from each institution. The independent variables were collected in the districts. Several statistical methods were used to analyze confidentially the data. Results: During the survey, for 1160 mm of water in 2004, 317 children died versus 56 for 1516 mm of water in 2013, i.e., a correlation coefficient between rainfall and malaria is 0.51. There was a statistically significant association between rainfall and malaria in Bangui as well as a correlation between malaria-related death and the level of humidity, i.e., for 51.99ºC, the number of death increased from 294 cases in 2004 to 216 cases for 49.74ºC in 2013 with a correlation coefficient between humidity and malaria morbidity of 0.46 and the coefficient of determination r2 of 21.31%. Malaria was influenced by humidity. Malaria transmission was higher during the rainy season (May to October) with an incidence of 61.11% (n = 44,193) versus 38.89% (n = 28,125) for the dry season (November to April). The 8th borough of Bangui with a very high level of vulnerability recorded the highest incidence of malaria (64,748 cases). Finally, the first borough with 11,502 cases of malaria had a very low level of vulnerability. Conclusion: Climatic trends have a negative impact on the outcome of malaria in Bangui. The consequences are the number of deaths of children under 5 years old.