Age-targeted HIV treatment and primary prevention as a 'ring fence' to efficiently interrupt the age patterns of transmission in generalized epidemic settings in South Africa

Abstract

Background: Generalized HIV epidemics propagate to future generations according to the age patterns of transmission. We hypothesized that future generations could be protected from infection using age-targeted prevention, analogous to the ring-fencing strategies used to control the spread of smallpox. Methods: We modeled age-targeted or cohort-targeted outreach with HIV treatment and/or prevention using EMOD-HIV v0·8, an individual-based network model of HIV transmission in South Africa. Results: Targeting ages 20 to 30 with intensified outreach, linkage, and eligibility for antiretroviral therapy (ART) averted 45% as many infections as universal outreach for approximately one-fifth the cost beyond existing HIV services. Though cost-effective, targeting failed to eliminate all infections to those under 20 due to vertical and inter-generational transmission. Cost-effectiveness of optimal prevention strategies included US$6238 per infection averted targeting ages 10-30, US$5031 targeting 20-30, US$4279 targeting 22-27, and US$3967 targeting 25-27, compared to US$10 812 for full-population test-and-treat. Minimizing burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) rather than infections resulted in older target age ranges because older adults were more likely to receive a direct health benefit from treatment. Conclusions: Age-targeted treatment for HIV prevention is unlikely to eliminate HIV epidemics, but is an efficient strategy for reducing new infections in generalized epidemics settings.