Kofi Annan, Syria and the uses of uncertainty in mediation

Abstract

One year after Kofi Annan presented his six-point plan for ending the Syrian civil war, it can only be called a failure. But it is necessary to recall the situation facing the UN-Arab League envoy and his team in early 2012. The Syrian conflict had created serious tensions between the major powers. A Western military intervention appeared unlikely but could not be ruled out with absolute certainty. This commentary contends that Annan’s initial priority was to reduce the level of uncertainty inside and outside Syria, thereby creating a framework for political talks. However, in lowering the level of uncertainty, Annan reduced his own leverage as the Syrian government correctly concluded that it would not be punished for failing to cooperate in good faith. The commentary concludes that there are occasions where it is advisable for international mediators to maintain and exploit a degree of uncertainty about how a conflict may develop.