Evaluation of aep predictions for commercial wind farms in sweden

Abstract

Based on data from 1162 wind turbines, with a rated power of at least 1.8 MW, installed in Sweden after 2005, the accuracy of the annual energy production (AEP) predictions from the project planning phases has been compared to the wind-index-corrected production. Both the production and the predicted AEP data come from the database Vindstat, which collects information directly from wind turbine owners. The mean error was 7.1%, which means that, overall, the predicted AEP has been overestimated. The overestimation was higher for wind turbines situated in open terrain than in forest areas and was higher overall than that previously established for the British Isles and South Africa. Dividing the result over the installation year, the improvement which had been expected due to the continuous refinement of the methods and better data availability, was not observed over time. The major uncertainty comes from the predicted AEP as reported by wind turbine owners to the Vindstat database, which, for some cases, might not come from the wind energy calculation from the planning phase (i.e., the P50-value).