Prediksi Jumlah Perceraian Menggunakan Metode Support Vector Regression (SVR)

Abstract

The increasing number of divorces poses an increasingly significant social challenge in Indonesia, including in the city of Pekanbaru. The impact of these divorces on the adolescent population can have negative effects on their emotional and psychological well-being, as well as their ability to interact socially and engage in the learning process. This study utilizes monthly divorce data from 2015 to April 2023 to conduct time series analysis and applies the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method to predict the number of divorces in the city of Pekanbaru. Three types of SVR kernels, namely linear, polynomial, and radial basis function (RBF), are evaluated and compared to find the kernel with the best Mean Squared Error (MSE) results. Through grid search analysis, optimal parameter values for each kernel are determined. The test results indicate that the SVR model with a polynomial kernel provides more accurate predictions with an MSE of 0.010228, compared to the linear kernel (MSE = 0.012767) and the RBF kernel (MSE = 0.010812).