Will a No-deal Brexit Disturb the EU-UK Agri-food Trade?

Abstract

The UK's decision to leave the European Union (EU) marks a turning point in the history of the EU. We analyse the impacts of an exit with no deal on agri-food trade using the temporary customs duties on imports announced by the British government. We focus on three product groups highly traded between the EU and the UK: wine, cheese and meat preparations. First, we show that a no-deal Brexit will put pressure on EU food producers exporting to the UK, Ireland being the most exposed. Second, impacts differ across products. The EU is a key wine supplier to the UK, but the expected removal of import tariffs may permit New World suppliers to grab market shares. The UK is also highly dependent on the EU for its imports of cheese. In the case of a no-deal, EU producers will face increased competition from third country producers of cheese varieties without geographical indications. The EU exports of meat preparations seem the most affected by a no-deal Brexit. In addition to the strong position of some non-EU suppliers on the British market, which will continue to enjoy a preferential market access, the UK's tariffs on meat products imported from the EU will rise sharply.