Where is Uzbekistan’s trade and where should it be directed? Gravity analyses for being doubly landlocked

Abstract

This study applies the gravity model to describe Uzbekistan’s trade pattern, based on which several policy implications are made. We find that Uzbekistan’s estimated trade flows with Ukraine, Russia, China, and South Korea are much more than the actual flows, while the country’s economic contacts with its neighboring countries (Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan) are far less than expected. This suggests that Uzbekistan should strive to increase trade with neighboring countries, through taking part in a free trade agreement between countries of Central Asia, or strategically using neighboring countries bordering the Caspian Sea and Arabian Sea.