Analysis of incidence and related factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Hebei province, China

Abstract

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important infectious disease in Hebei province, China. The average annual incidence is 3.10/100000. Although the incidence of HFRS is stable with a general decline in trend since 2004, an increase in the trend was observed in 2011. Few studies have been conducted to investigate the underlying risk factors for this disease. Methods: The epidemiological data of HFRS and the population data, meteorology, and remote sensing aspects of cities in Hebei province from 1999 to 2011 were collected. The epidemiological data included the population density in the region, seasonal data and rat density and rat's virus carriage rate. The data were analyzed by descriptive study, correlation analysis and multivariate linear analysis. Results: There were 26837 cases of HFRS was reported from 1999 to 2011. The infection occurred mainly in males, aged 20-49 years, who were farmers. Rattus norvegicus was the main host animal. The incidence of HFRS was related to NDVI value, rat density and rat's virus carriage rate by multiple linear regression (F = 25.936, P<0.01). The pseudo- R2value for the model was 0.644. Conclusion: The incidence of HFRS was related to NDVI value, rat density and rat's virus carriage rate. Control of these factors should be used to prevent HFRS in Hebei province. © 2014 LI et al.