Climate Change Opens Up New Fishing Possibilities for Large-Scale Trawling Vessels Off West Greenland

Abstract

Climate change is transforming marine ecosystems, opening new fishing possibilities for large-scale trawling vessels in the Arctic. This study investigates the potential for new fishing grounds to emerge in West Greenland. We employed a maximum entropy model to predict fishing suitability based on climatological and time-invariant variables alongside public fishing vessel data. The model, validated with high accuracy, identified maximum depth, ice thickness and ice concentration as the most important predictors of fishing suitability. Results indicate a 6.2% increase in whole domain suitable fishing grounds from the 2010s to the 2040s, and a 11.4% increase from the 2010s to the 2090s. This change is driven by decreasing ice coverage, allowing extended access to the productive shelf edge. Increased fishing suitability could enhance fishing opportunities leading to increased economic benefits. However, the prolonged fishing season also raises concerns about overexploitation, ecological sustainability and sediment dispersion. Earlier access would enable trawling over carbon-rich sediments for extended periods, leading to a resuspension of sediment-bound carbon. Our findings highlight the need for adaptive management strategies to balance economic gains with the protection of marine ecosystems in the face of ongoing climate changes.