Problematic Prognostications about China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI): Lessons from Africa and the Middle East

Abstract

The raging debate about China’s mega Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI) falls into two extreme camps, those that forecast earthshattering effects and those, focused on the MSRI’s numerous contemporary challenges, that see China’s scheme as stagnating or failing. This study plunges into the debate by conducting a macro- and micro-level analysis of the MSRI. The macro-level analysis indicates that the MSRI is not having transformative economic effects. Neither does it show that the MSRI is significantly stalling or collapsing. The microlevel analysis, which focuses on Africa and the Middle East, demonstrates that the MSRI is being embraced and realized in different degrees and highlights reasons for this variation. The article further summarizes and distills various insights flowing from the other pieces in this special issue.