Habitat quality and drought effects on breeding mallard and other waterfowl populations in California, USA

Abstract

As many as 500,000 waterfowl reside in California, USA, during summer, but little is known about the availability or quality of their habitats. Wetland size and distribution serve as proximate cues for habitat selection by breeding waterfowl in other parts of North America such as the Prairie Pothole Region. In heavily modified landscapes such as California's Central Valley, disturbance from factors like crop cultivation and urban development may limit access, affect survival, and decrease reproductive success. Water limitations due to recurring seasonal droughts pose another potential threat to breeding waterfowl. Spatial and temporal disparities in environmental resources may provide clearer indications of ultimate habitat selection. We addressed waterfowl habitat selection in 9 regions surveyed annually by California's Department of Fish and Wildlife to determine relative importance of drought severity, wetland area, and habitat quality on mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and other waterfowl population dynamics from 2007–2019. High-quality habitat supports long-term population persistence of waterfowl. This study period included an extended drought (2012–2015) and flooding (2016–2017). Statewide, habitat quality was the best predictor of mallard and other waterfowl population fluctuations. The model that included intermediate habitat quality, which accounted for influence of adjacent land-use, outperformed models that included wetland area alone. At the regional level, drought severity out-ranked other variables in most regions, suggesting management at regional scales must account for climate. Drought accounted for bird declines in some regions and possible increases in others. This information could be used to identify areas for conservation priority based on projected drought frequency and severity.