Population Viability Analysis of Black Rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis michaeli) in Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya

Abstract

Drastic decline of the black rhinoceros population both in numbers and range distribution have created a puzzle on its long term survival. We developed simulation models to identify crucial anthropogenic parameters that are essential for the successful development of conservation actions of this species in Lake Nakuru National Park under different scenarios. The roles of multiple anthropogenic parameters were evaluated to assess changes affecting population declines and extinction risk. Population Viability Analysis (PVA) simulations were done using individualbased program. A baseline simulation allowed for the assessment of the status of the species based on estimates of extinction risk and population declines under current conditions of abundance and habitat availability. The baseline simulation showed that Lake Nakuru National Park subpopulation has 0.00 probability of extinction during the next seventy five years. However, continuing threats, including declines in abundance and browse unavailability, make this species highly vulnerable to any change. Sensitivity analysis of anthropogenic impacts showed that small increases in habitat loss (2%) and population harvesting (3%) had drastic effects on population decline with a 100% probability of extinction. Our findings shows the need for conservation actions aimed at preventing poaching activities, modulating translocation programs and promoting the conservation of available black rhino habitats.