Crop Yields and Global Food Security. Will Yield Increase Continue to Feed the World?

Abstract

Key points • Because of population and per capita income growth, and usage in biofuel, world demand for staple crop products should grow by 60% from 2010 to 2050, with greatest increases in the next 20 years. • Crop area is likely to grow by approximately 10% over the same period, through net increase in arable area and increase in cropping intensity. • World wheat, rice and soybean yields have been increasing linearly over the past 20 years, but progress is declining in relative terms to reach 1.0% per annum (p.a.), relative to 2010 yields; for maize the figure is 1.5% p.a. • In order to hold real grain price increases by 2050 to no more than 30% over the low levels of 2000–06, published modelling suggests that a minimum acceptable rate of yield progress of staple crops is 1.1% p.a. (linear relative to 2010 levels). • Higher rates of increase (e.g. 1.3% p.a.) would be wiser targets to drive faster reductions in world hunger and guard against unanticipated negative contingencies. • The subject of this book is the prospect for progress in crop yield to achieve this minimum rate, the conditions required for this to be