Real-Time Intersection Turning Movement Flow Forecasting Using a Parallel Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Model

Abstract

Real-time forecasting of intersection turning movements is a critical requirement for predictive traffic signal control at signalized intersections. Several traffic flow forecasting models have been developed in the past; however, most of them have focused only on the road segment-level traffic instead of the turning movement flow (TMF) at intersections. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a new TMF forecasting model, which consists of a combination of two neural network models, namely the stacked bidirectional long short-term memory and the traditional multi-layer perceptron model; this combination will enable effective learning for both short- and long-term time-varying patterns. Moreover, extensive computational experiments, using two years of turning movement counts at 22 intersections in the city of Milton, Ontario, Canada, explore the performance advantage of the proposed model in comparison with several state-of-the-art base models for forecasting accuracy, robustness, and transferability.