High stakes for Iran

Abstract

As neo-conservatives inside and outside the Pentagon step up their rhetoric against the Islamic Republic of Iran, internal polarization in Iran also seems to be reaching a breaking point. Hardliners in the Iranian regime have managed effectively to block most significant attempts at reforming governance over the past four years. The inability of the elected reformers to deliver on most of their campaign promises, coupled with mismanagement of the civic and economic spheres under their direct control (such as the Tehran municipality or the oil sector), has disillusioned the public. With the US reportedly moving toward an explicitly confrontational posture toward Iran, different factions within the regime, as well as outside political forces and significant segments of the population, seem to have concluded that the current deadlock must be broken-one way or another. The stakes are very high. If the democratic movement in Iran, embodied in elected representatives as well as those outside the regime committed to non-violent reforms and national reconciliation, can resolve the current impasse, Iran has a chance to be a model of a radical, revolutionary Islamist state successfully making the transition to an inclusive and functionally secular democracy. Washington hawks present the alternative of overthrowing the regime through a "popular uprising"-really a civil war-and restoring the Pahlavi monarchy, following a referendum. Iranian hardliners could resort to open domestic repression or total blockage of the reform movement. Either of these alternatives could engender chaos and civil strife that will make the current scene in Iraq pale by comparison.