Electric Vehicle Sales Catastrophe Averted (?)

Abstract

The literature indicates catastrophic potential for electric vehicles around the year 2019. Amidst the predicted time, this research revisits the prequel analysis with state-of-the-art deterministic artificial intelligence methodologies to posit the potential for catastrophe in the upcoming year. The methodology has proven effective with motion mechanics, electrodynamics, and even financial analysis of sales date in the prequels, since the model commences with simple regression for mathematical model formulation asserting the certainty equivalence principle, followed by derivative modeling and eventually catastrophe analysis of the derivative models. The prequel analysis paradigms are retained in this sequel utilizing both monthly and cumulative sales data in simple least squares algorithms for predictive curve fitting to establish context and help correctly model the mathematical degree of the data. Extrapolation by forward time-propagation established predictions for models of various mathematical degrees (again merely for context). Next, catastrophe analysis (of the derivative form) revealed stable and unstable equilibrium points and then parametric variation was induced to evaluate the resulting behavior of the derivative models, highlighting the importance of the coefficient of the second order term (the acceleration or change of rate of sales as a forcing function). While the forcing function typically embodies both gasoline prices and vehicle charging proliferation, the relative stability of gas prices together with factors such as vehicle-to-grid elevate charging-station proliferation as the primary forcing function of slow-dynamics in catastrophe analysis. This brief manuscript revisits the prequel research to test the validity of those conclusions and with the benefit of the passage of time, reveal how well the mathematical modeling predicted real behavior. The main finding is the predicted potential catastrophe is less likely to occur and recommendations are made to insure catastrophe is averted.