Circulating Tumor DNA as a Real-Time Biomarker for Minimal Residual Disease and Recurrence Prediction in Stage II Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abstract

The role of adjuvant chemotherapy (adj-CT) in stage II colon cancer remains controversial. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is a promising biomarker for detecting minimal residual disease (MRD) and predicting recurrence. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the prognostic value of ctDNA in stage II colorectal cancer (CRC), focusing on postoperative detection, post adj-CT outcomes, and dynamic surveillance. A literature search identified studies correlating ctDNA positivity in stage II CRC with recurrence risk, recurrence-free survival (RFS), and disease-free survival (DFS). Seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Postoperative ctDNA positivity significantly increased the risk of recurrence (pooled risk ratio [RR:] 3.66; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25–10.72; p = 0.002). CtDNA positivity after adj-CT was strongly associated with poor survival, while dynamic ctDNA monitoring detected recurrence earlier than conventional methods, including carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and imaging. CtDNA is a robust prognostic biomarker in stage II CRC, enabling personalized treatment. High-risk ctDNA-positive patients may benefit from intensified therapy, while ctDNA-negative patients could avoid unnecessary treatments. However, the standardization of detection methods and large-scale validation studies are needed before integrating ctDNA into routine clinical practice as a non-invasive, dynamic tool for personalized care.