Fission battery economics-by-design

Abstract

To help address the low-carbon energy challenge, fission batteries could serve a wide variety of markets requiring heat, electricity, or other energy products. Fission batteries would be manufactured in a factory, delivered to the user, and returned to the factory for refurbishment and refueling. Fission battery developers face important tradeoffs between standardization, which is necessary to achieve cost competitiveness through large-scale manufacturing, and customization, which is necessary to meet the various needs of specific markets. Economics-by-design provides a comprehensive and systematic framework for assessing market requirements and adapting fission battery designs for the optimal balance of standardization and customization. The target cost range for fission batteries is $6–15/million BTU. The market review identified existing U.S. markets (primarily petroleum refining, chemicals, paper and pulp, food processing, and biofuels), and the large maritime market to decarbonize global shipping and offshore platforms. Decarbonization of the U.S. economy could increase the FB market by more than an order of magnitude for applications ranging from large-scale biofuels to powering office and industrial parks. High-volume markets have low market entry prices because of competition from other low-carbon alternatives. Remote sites and military applications would allow for higher fission battery costs, but these potential markets are smaller (dozens of units). The market review highlights how no single market is attractive for fission batteries from the standpoint of all metrics considered: market sizing, profitability prospects, operational requirements, and nuclear-specific requirements. As such, fission battery developers following the economics-by-design approach would likely need to rely on a base design satisfying constraints for most markets, then customize a limited set of parameters in order to cater to a larger variety of markets while still leveraging benefits from standardization.