Modeling migratory patterns of the eastern monarch butterfly

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to relate the influence of specific site suitability variables to eastern monarch butterfly migratory patterns and behavior. Elevation, temperature, precipitation, and land use data layers were overlaid to collectively consider how these variables affected the way that butterflies migrated and recolonized during the 2016/2017 migratory cycle. The variables were reclassified into layers ranking suitability as either unsuitable, suitable, or optimal with respective scores of one, three, and five. Three uninhabitable variables were identified that deemed a site unsuitable despite the influence and possible optimal suitability of the other variables. The results of this study indicated that site suitability was a large driving factor for migratory monarchs with a heavier emphasis placed on average temperature and land/cropland use. Possible displaced and sink populations were identified for further study, while the effects of agriculture, development, and climate change were considered regarding flyway connectivity and behavior.